Is air quality in China a social problem?

Is air quality in China a social problem?
Is air quality in China a social problem?
Is air quality in China a social problem? Top

    The human and fiscal cost of air pollution is irrefutable. After identifying air pollution as carcinogenic in 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) has tracked air quality to measure its effect on stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, and other respiratory illnesses. China and India each had 1.1 million air pollution-related deaths in 2015, accounting for half of the world’s total air pollution deaths that year. In China, University of California at Berkeley physicists estimated in a 2015 report that air pollution leads to about 4,000 premature deaths a day. Chinese leaders face the difficult choice of prioritizing economic growth or environmental and social welfare, which compromises its ability to cultivate its national power. Additionally, China’s air-quality concerns have harmed China’s international image, adversely affecting Chinese soft power. In this question, we compare pollution levels with other countries, assess the social consequences of China’s air pollution, and explain what generates China’s pollution.

    An Air Quality Index (AQI) is an indicator for reporting the safety level of air in a specific location. The AQI used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is scaled between 0 and 500 with “breakpoints” (e.g. 0, 50, 100, 150,…500) that correspond to a defined pollution concentration. The color coding in the below graphic corresponds to EPA standards.

    China Air Quality Index

    AQI values are derived from daily PM 2.5 concentration averages calculated from the hourly recorded values from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.

    How does air quality in China compare with other countries?

    Countries with a developing or developed industrial sector must often face the tradeoff between the perceived economic limitations of environmental regulation, and environmental and public welfare. The challenge is not a recent phenomenon. Advanced economies, like the United Kingdom and United States, continue to work toward environmental protection while supporting their economic and industrial sectors. The challenge arguably has greater repercussions for developing countries, as their economic development often depends on industrial output.

    A Conversation With Barbara Finamore

     

    0:08 - Is air pollution endemic to industrialization? Is it possible for countries to industrialize without polluting?

    1:19 - Is public concern in China over air quality a problem for the Chinese government?

    2:42 - Has the Chinese government been forthcoming with information on air pollution levels?

    3:58 - Would legislation designed to curb China’s air pollution slow the Chinese economy?

    6:20 - Has air pollution had a negative effect on how China is viewed in other countries?

    Most advanced economies began to regulate air pollution after de-industrialization was already underway. This period coincided with better public awareness of the health consequences of pollution. After the 1952 “Great Smog of London” was estimated to have killed at least 4,000 people, the UK introduced the Clean Air Act of 1956 to restrict emissions. Due to the lack of consistent data, the extent to which the act directly contributed to air-quality improvements is unknown, but the post-1960 difference was dramatic; urban concentrations of smoke fell by 80 percent and sulfur dioxide by 70 percent within 20 years.

    Public concern about air quality is an enormous problem for the Chinese government and it has only become so in recent years as the public gained more information.

    – Barbara Finamore

    In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency introduced the Clean Air Act in 1970, with subsequent amendments in 1977 and 1990. The Clean Air Act established national air-quality standards, and has been associated with reductions in sulfur dioxide and other pollutants, leading to an immediate reduction in infant mortality rates. In 1972, an estimated 1,300 infants survived as a consequence of the Clean Air Act.1 Although the U.S. public has benefited from this regulation, economic losses were incurred during this transition. In the 15 years following the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act amendments, it is estimated that American counties found in violation of regulation lost about 590,000 jobs, $37 billion in capital goods, and $75 billion in production.2

    Each data point represents the daily AQI value and pollutant type recorded by the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP). The AQI value is determined by the pollutant with the highest index on a given day.

    Emerging markets face the same cost-benefit tradeoffs as wealthier countries like the United Kingdom and United States. As both are large, developing countries, India makes the most obvious point of comparison for China. In 2015, the average concentration levels of particulate matter in India surpassed China. Whereas the concentration of PM2.5 decreased by 17 percent in China from 2010 to 2015, pollution levels increased in India by 13 percent during the same time period. In Mumbai alone, air pollution-related government and personal health expenditures totaled as much as $77.8 billion in 2011. A 2017 Greenpeace report estimates that there are 1.2 million air-pollution-based deaths per year in India, and that India lost 3 percent of its GDP due to air pollution in 2015. To help curb the pollution problem, the Indian government has enacted a number of measures ranging from a graded air quality rating response system to mandating emission-reducing catalytic converters for motor vehicles.

    Air pollution tends to be localized due to topography, weather patterns, and industry location. Along the Beijing-to-Shanghai corridor, where China’s pollution is most concentrated, 10 percent of the land area has been associated with 34 percent of China’s PM2.5 emissions (particle matter 2.5 microns or less in diameter). The American Lung Association has found that counties in southern and central California—including Los Angeles, Fresno-Madera, and Bakersfield—experience the most particle matter and ozone air pollution. The report attributed this phenomenon to this region’s high levels of drought, fires, and burning wood as a heat source. Thus, air-quality regulations must also address industrial and geographic details at the local level.

    Many countries face a tradeoff between cheap energy alternatives and infrastructural investments for clean-energy transition. Such challenges place particular attention on China’s environmental policies.

    How can we assess the social consequences of air pollution?

    It is only over the past two decades that the full extent of the health implications of air pollution—especially particulate matter—have become understood. WHO has published guidelines outlining safe air quality levels. The guidelines focus on concentrations of fine particulate matter, which can penetrate deep inside the human respiratory system.

    In China, particulate matter concentrations far exceeded WHO recommended levels. The WHO Air Quality Guidelines stipulate that a country’s annual mean of fine particulate matter of PM2.5 (particle matter 2.5 microns or less in diameter) should not exceed 10 micrograms per cubic meter, and 20 micrograms per cubic meter for PM10.3 PM2.5 presents the greatest danger to human health, since it can accumulate deep inside the lungs. China’s annual PM2.5 levels are consistently five times higher than the advised WHO limit of 10 micrograms per cubic meter, which can lead to increased likelihood of respiratory issues in sensitive individuals. Researchers with the Berkeley Earth Project found that, over a four-month period in mid-2014, around 92 percent of China’s population was exposed to more than 120 hours of unhealthy air.

    Each data point represents the AQI value in terms of PM 2.5 concentrations. AQI values are daily averages calculated from the hourly recorded values from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. 

    In addition to health risks, ambient air pollution also imposes economic costs on a country. By one estimate, health problems due to air pollution led to the loss of about 133 million workdays in 2007. This loss was equivalent to 1.34 percent of real GDP, and lowered total household disposable income by $90 billion.4

    Elements of the Chinese public have expressed frustration with this public health hazard. In February 2015, Chinese reporter Chai Jing’s air-pollution documentary, “Under the Dome,” went viral upon its release. Depicting comparative interviews with environmental officials, industrial business managers, and health officials in China and Los Angeles, it received up to 200 million hits on Chinese websites, such as Youku and Tencent, before its removal by Internet censors a week later. In March 2015, Peking University academics released a critical evaluation of pollution levels and current policy responses, drawing on recent U.S. Embassy data. High pollution levels drive demand for air-quality products, including air filters and face masks. Companies, such as 3M, have seen a boom in air purification sales on the Chinese market since 2013. Recently this demand has pivoted towards high end-air purification units over cheaper alternatives. This trend has also fostered a fake goods market. In December 2015, 120,000 counterfeit masks were seized by Shanghai authorities in a single raid. These masks offered no air purification, prompting public concerns over the authenticity of air-quality products on the market.

    What’s contributing to China’s air pollution?

    China relies heavily on coal to generate electricity, power industrialization, and heat homes, which has significantly contributed to its air-pollution problem. China burns coal in a dirty and inefficient manner, as China still maintains heavy investments in “subcritical” coal plants, which contribute high levels of airborne pollutants. Beyond coal, increasing car and scooter ownership has also raised carbon dioxide emissions. New environmental policies target industry, yet may fall short in addressing private sources of pollution.

    Electricity generation and coal-powered industry, such as steel and cement production, are the largest contributors to air pollution in China. Coal emissions contribute roughly 40 percent of PM2.5 pollution in China.

    China accounts for 50 percent of the world’s total coal consumption, and China’s coal industry accounts for more than 65 percent of its total energy use. Government subsidies support this massive consumption of coal. Economists estimate 2011 consumer subsidies at $1.39 billion and producer subsidies at $5.6 billion. These subsidies make coal an attractive energy source. Hebei Province, for example, generates 90 percent of its electricity with coal and relies on coal almost exclusively for industrial manufacturing.

    The enormous quantity of coal consumed in China, combined with inefficient burning practices, has led to significant health consequences. A joint study by the Health Effects Institute and Tsinghua University discovered that coal-generated pollution was the most important contributor to ambient PM2.5 pollution, with premature deaths resulting from coal-burning totaling 366,000 premature deaths in 2013. As a result, industrial pollution has come to symbolize the tradeoff between social welfare and economic development.

    In the West there have been many tried and true policies that China is now adapting to its own conditions . . . that make it possible for China to decouple its energy use, its dirty energy use, in particular, from its economic growth.

    – Barbara Finamore

    In recent years, the United States and China have been developing Clean Coal Technologies (CCT) to help reduce emissions. In general, CCTs cover a range of technologies including the use of carbon capture and storage, efficiency improvements at coal-burning power plants, gasification of coal (instead of burning it), and coal washing. In August 2015, the U.S. Department of Energy and China’s National Energy Administration reached an information-sharing agreement, in which both countries will work to refine technologies to capture the greenhouse gases produced from burning coal. Nevertheless, CCTs are expensive and many are still in the early stages of development, limiting their commercial feasibility. It may take years until CCTs become a viable option for reducing the impact of power production from coal on the environment.

    Private household energy consumption also poses an environmental challenge. Households contribute to pollution in two ways: through burning coal for cooking and indoor heating, and through motor vehicle usage. The cyclicality of air pollution—particularly egregious in winter where PM2.5 concentrations are three times higher – illustrates how many buildings and households rely on coal for heat. In 2011, 42 percent of households relied on coal for cooking and 36 percent for winter heat. China’s more than 300 million vehicle drivers are an additional source of pollution. Motor vehicle exhaust has changed urban air pollution’s composition. In 2000, 45–60 percent of nitrogen oxide emissions and 85 percent of carbon monoxide emissions were produced by motor vehicles.5

    Chinese leaders have enacted a series of noteworthy measures to address the country’s pollution problem. In November 2016, China released the Thirteenth 5-Year Plan, which outlined the key environmental objectives. These include a continuing effort to reduce PM2.5 in China’s ten worst-affected cities, including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei by 18 percent and reducing coal production by 140 million tons by 2020. China and the United States signed an agreement in November 2014 in which China pledged to cap carbon emissions by 2030. In a U.S-China agreement in September 2015, China announced plans for a cap-and-trade emissions marketplace for power generation, steel, and cement industries. This marketplace is currently undergoing pilot programs in seven cities including Beijing, and will be applied across the nation in 2017. China is also investing heavily in renewable sources of energy.

    Additional efforts designed to curb pollution, include the canceling of 103 planned or half-constructed coal-fired power plants in February 2017 and outlining plans to cut steel and fertilizer capacity by at least half in 28 cities by 2018. Lu Yan, head of the Beijing Municipal Reform and Development Commission, further stated that Beijing aims to lower its average PM2.5 levels to 60 micrograms per cubic meter, and city officials have earmarked more than $2.6 billion to tackle Beijing’s air pollution problem. Over two dozen cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, have also drawn up an action plan designed to reduce winter smog. These cities have committed to closing inefficient or improperly licensed polluting businesses, banning small coal-fired furnaces, and cutting steel and aluminum output during the winter season. ChinaPower

    1. J. Lelieveld, J. S. Evans, M. Fnais, D. Giannadaki, and A. Pozzer, “The Contribution of Outdoor Air Pollution Sources to Premature Mortality on a Global Scale,” Nature, Vol. 525, Issue 7569, September 2015.
    2. Michael Greenstone, “The Impacts of Environmental Regulation on Industrial Activity: Evidence from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments and the Census of Manufactures,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100, No. 6 (2002): 1175–76.
    3. Su-Mei Chen and Ling-Yun He, “Welfare Loss of China’s Air Pollution: How to Make Personal Vehicle Transportation Policy,” China Economic Review, Vol. 31 (Beijing: Chinese Economists Society, 2014), 106.
    4. Su-Mei Chen and Ling-Yun He, “Welfare Loss of China’s Air Pollution: How to Make Personal Vehicle Transportation Policy,” China Economic Review, Vol. 31 (Beijing: Chinese Economists Society, 2014), 106.
    5. “Yang Chen, Wei-Shiuen Ng, and Lee Schipper, “China Motorization Trends: New Directions for Crowded Cities,” The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Vol. 3, No. 3 (2010): 11; and M. P. Walsh, “Technical Report 3: Transportation and the Environment in China,” Woodrow Wilson Center, Environmental Change and Security Project, 2000.