Recent years have witnessed a sharp rise in tensions between the United States and China and across the Taiwan Strait. High-level U.S. efforts to engage with Taiwan have been met with strong backlash from China. When then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China escalated with unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan, provoking the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis. In April 2023, China again took major military and diplomatic measures after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen transited the United States and met with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. In May 2024, China conducted large-scale military and law enforcement exercises around Taiwan three days after Taiwan President William Lai’s inauguration.
This ChinaPower series closely examines developments surrounding the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis that began in August 2022. Below, you can preview some of the highlights of each feature in the series and navigate to the full features by following the links.
Tracking the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
When then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China responded with unprecedented military activities and strong punitive diplomatic measures. China’s military exercises in August were larger and closer to Taiwan than the exercises China carried out during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-1996. The exercises also included unprecedented live-firing of ballistic missiles over Taiwan. This feature closely tracks and analyzes China’s military activities and diplomatic escalation after Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan.
Surveying the Experts: China’s Approach to Taiwan
After China’s unprecedented military and diplomatic response to Speaker Pelosi’s visit, ChinaPower surveyed 64 leading experts and former senior U.S. officials about China’s approach to Taiwan. The survey included questions on key issues such as Beijing’s potential timelines for Taiwan’s unification as well as the likelihood of accidents or conflict in the coming years. This feature visualizes and analyzes the results of the survey.
Putting Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s U.S. Transit in Context
In March and April 2023, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen transited through the United States and met with U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in California. By having Tsai and McCarthy meet during an unofficial Taiwan transit of the United States, there were hopes that Beijing’s activities would be less escalatory than it was when Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022. This feature provides historical context to Tsai’s 2023 transit by assessing trends in previous transits and analyzing Chinese responses.
Tracking China’s April 2023 Military Exercises around Taiwan
Despite hopes that Beijing’s activities following the Tsai-McCarthy meeting would be more limited, China again launched a series of large-scale military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan. China also took significant diplomatic countermeasures against Taiwan and the United States. This feature includes detailed timelines tracking key Chinese military and diplomatic activities before, during, and after the transit.
Analyzing China’s Escalation after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s 2023 U.S. Transit
This feature analyzes the important similarities and differences between China’s military and diplomatic activities in August 2022 and April 2023. It also examines the key factors that may have driven China’s overall approach. Using data, it concludes that Beijing carried out less heavy-handed, more calculated measures in April, suggesting it learned from its experience in August.
How Is China Responding to the Inauguration of Taiwan’s President William Lai?
On May 23, 2024, three days after Taiwan’s new president William Lai delivered his inauguration speech, China commenced large-scale military exercises surrounding Taiwan called “Joint Sword-2024A.” China also conducted “comprehensive law enforcement exercises” near Taiwan’s outlying island and east of Taiwan. This feature analyzes the May 2024 exercises and compares them with the large-scale exercises of August 2022 and April 2023. It also analyzes China’s rationale for engaging in these exercises and tracks Chinese non-military measures to punish Taiwan.
Analyzing China’s Escalation After Taiwan President William Lai’s National Day Speech
On October 10, 2024, Taiwan President William Lai followed a long-held practice of delivering a speech marking the National Day of the Republic of China (commonly referred to in Taiwan as “Double Ten Day”). Four days after Lai’s speech, China conducted large-scale military and law-enforcement exercises around Taiwan and several outlying islands, named “Joint Sword-2024B.” This feature analyzes the October 2024 exercises and compares them with the past three large-scale exercises. It also provides an in-depth analysis of the China Coast Guard activities, which saw unprecedented activities compared to past exercises.
