In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. Michael J. Green to discuss U.S.-China competition for influence in the Pacific Islands and broader Indo-Pacific region following President Biden’s trip to Asia. Dr. Green begins with an overview of countries’ expectations ahead of Biden’s trip. Despite Biden’s shortened trip, the trip was still substantive, maintains Dr. Green, with major breakthroughs and agreements struck. He highlights the varying attitudes and approaches G7 countries have towards China and describes the difference between decoupling and de-risking. Lastly, Dr. Green reveals that the People’s Liberation Army’s recent actions have been damaging to its overall grand strategy.
ChinaPower PODCAST
The ChinaPower Podcast dissects critical issues underpinning China’s emergence as a global power. By bringing together the leading experts on China and international politics, the series offers our listeners critical insights into the challenges and opportunities presented by China’s rise. These extended discussions are hosted by the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
China’s Approach to Artificial Intelligence: A Conversation with Gregory C. Allen
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Mr. Gregory C. Allen to discuss artificial intelligence (AI), China’s thinking on AI technology, and U.S.-China competition in this realm. Mr. Allen explains that over the last decade, the approach to AI technology has greatly shifted with a new emphasis on machine learning. He describes the steps of the AI value chain and how different stages are more computationally intensive than others. He assesses that China has responded to U.S. export controls on certain advanced computing chips to China through several measures, including foreign technology acquisition and restriction evasion. However, Mr. Allen points out that chip making equipment is central to AI technology, and China does not yet possess this capability. Lastly, he reveals that the Chinese military views AI capabilities as foundational to China’s economic and military power.
China’s Capabilities in Space: A Conversation with Kari Bingen
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Ms. Kari Bingen to discuss U.S.-China competition in space and Beijing’s ambitions in the domain. Ms. Bingen explains that space has become a more important domain for a variety of actors with security and economic interests. China has rapidly expanded its space program and, as Ms. Bingen details, seeks a preeminent position among countries with space capabilities. Lastly, Ms. Bingen reveals the need for cooperation in space to establish norms for behavior and counter malign actors.
TikTok and U.S.-China Technology Competition: A Conversation with Caitlin Chin
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Ms. Caitlin Chin to discuss the debate around TikTok in the United States and the question of China’s influence over the platform. Ms. Chin explains the conversation around the U.S.’ proposed ban of TikTok, describing that supporters worry that user information will fall into the hands of the Chinese government, while opponents worry about restrictions on free expression. Despite TikTok’s denial that Beijing has or would obtain access to its data, Ms. Chin suggests deep mistrust between the U.S. and China has prevented U.S. lawmakers from accepting these claims. Lastly, Ms. Chin looks to India as an analogue for what could happen if the United States banned TikTok, noting that TikTok’s exit in India caused an increase in users for domestic social media platforms.
Assessing Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen’s U.S. Transit: A Conversation with Randall Schriver
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Mr. Randall Schriver to discuss Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s recent transit of the United States and broader cross-Strait issues. Mr. Schriver explains the context behind President Tsai’s latest transit through the U.S. and what made this transit both in line with prior transits and unique and successful. Mr. Schriver suggests that it is still too early to see the full Chinese response, but concerns about Taiwan’s presidential election next year could cause Beijing to have a muted reaction to Tsai’s transit. Regardless of China’s reaction, he sees the Taiwan-United States relationship continuing to strengthen into the future.
Evaluating the China-Pakistan Relationship: A Conversation with Sameer Lalwani
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. Sameer Lalwani to discuss the evolving relationship between China and Pakistan. He explains that China has accumulated major leverage over Pakistan through both economic investment and arms sales. Dr. Lalwani also details how China might seek greater access to ports in the Indian Ocean through Pakistan. Looking forward, Dr. Lalwani argues that despite the close relationship, Pakistan has a different threat perception than China and values its autonomy. If possible, Pakistan does not want to pick sides in the emerging U.S.-China competition, opening the door to possible U.S. engagement with Islamabad.
Unpacking China’s Debt: A Conversation with Nicholas Borst
On this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Nicholas Borst to discuss China’s debt situation and fiscal policy. He explains that China’s debt levels have increased dramatically relative to the size of the Chinese economy and China has more debt as a proportion of GDP compared to the United States. Much of the debt is concentrated in local governments, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and real estate developers. Mr. Borst describes China’s decentralized fiscal system where the Chinese central government is fiscally conservative and local governments bear more risk and are responsible for healthcare, infrastructure, and social insurance as well as supporting key central initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Although no Chinese local government has defaulted to date, Chinese SOEs have defaulted, and their defaults have led to shocks to the Chinese market. Looking forward, Mr. Borst argues that the reforms passed at China’s recent “Two Sessions” will do little to address the root issues of China’s fiscal issues.
China’s Demographic Headwinds: A Conversation with Philip O'Keefe
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Philip O’Keefe to discuss China’s changing demographic composition and challenges the country might face as a result. He explains that China’s falling population and low birth rates are the result of decades of population control measures, including the one-child policy. Mr. O’Keefe describes that, despite the rollback of these kinds of policies and new government incentives to have children, China’s birth rate remains low due to the high cost of child rearing in the country and economic development. Looking forward, Mr. O’Keefe discusses the role that automation might play in alleviating some demographic pressures and mounting health and economic challenges China will face as its population shrinks and ages.